Overall order intake along with output volume more than doubled its rate of decline, whilst staffing intention held the same marginal reduction as before. Optimism stayed at a similar negative position overall, and the only long-term positive index now remaining is intention to invest in training and capital projects with training the more significant of those reflecting the focus and attention it commands in our sector.
Key attention points from this quarter:
- Overall order intake amongst members fell negative to a net -17% with UK orders the stronger driver for reduction this quarter
- Output volume also dipped to a net of -20%, negative for the third quarter in a row
- For the coming three months, members forecast a net increase of 16% of businesses having increased orders, with output forecast to swing to a net positive +24% increase in the same period
- Forecasts for the last two quarters have been positive whilst the actual orders and output for the corresponding period have been negative, and once again for this coming quarter members have forecast a positive swing for both orders and output
The data in this Review was acquired by a survey of Scottish Engineering’s members and certain other manufacturing companies.
33% of members responded
Companies are described as:
Small (<100 employees), Medium (100–500) and Large (>500)
Annual trends
The first quarter of 2025 indicates a decline for the third consecutive quarter in order intake of -17%, together with output volume, exports and staffing returning negative movements from last quarter of -20%, -7% and -4% respectively. Capacity utilisation also indicates a negative movement for a second quarter at -1%.
Order intake
Output volume
Exports
Staffing
UK Orders
Net | Up | Same | Down |
-19% | 23% | 35% | 42% |
UK orders record a fourth consecutive decrease, to a net -19%. Large and small companies have impacted this decline (-34% and -25%), with medium companies showing positivity at +4%. Although Plant & Machinery have equal positive and negative returns this quarter, they have improved from -16% to 0%. Manufacturing is reporting positive returns this quarter improving from -25% to +4%. Metal products, Precision Engineering, Fabricators and Electrical & Electronics recorded negative returns this quarter (-80%, -40%, -29% and -25%) all showing a downward trajectory in comparison to last quarter (-67%, 0%, 0% and -11%).
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
| Small | -25% | 21% | 33% | 46% |
Medium | 4% | 30% | 44% | 26% |
Large | -34% | 22% | 22% | 56% |
Sectors |
|
|
|
|
Manufacturing | 4% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Plant & Machinery | 0% | 30% | 40% | 30% |
Metal | -80% | 0% | 20% | 80% |
Precision | -40% | 20% | 20% | 60% |
Fabricators | -29% | 14% | 43% | 43% |
Electrical & Electronics | -25% | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Export Orders
Net | Up | Same | Down |
-7% | 27% | 39% | 34% |
Export orders remain below the line with a net -7%, however, an improvement from last quarter of -19%. All sizes have assisted the improvement with medium and larger companies showing equal and positive returns this quarter, a movement from -43% and -10%. Small companies have seen a slight improvement, although still negative from last quarter, a movement from -19% to -10%. Precision Engineering and Manufacturing have reported both equal and positive returns this quarter, an improvement from last quarter of -37% and -20%. Plant & Machinery also indicate equal positive and negative returns this quarter (+34% last quarter). Metal products are reporting negative returns of -100%, an increase from last quarter of -34%, followed by Electrical & Electronics and Fabricators reporting negative returns of -25% each, a fall for Fabricators last quarter (-20%), an improvement for Electrical & Electronics (-56%).
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
Small | -10% | 25% | 41% | 34% |
Medium | 0% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
Large | 0% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
Sectors |
|
|
|
|
Manufacturing | 0% | 29% | 42% | 29% |
Plant & Machinery | 0% | 44% | 12% | 44% |
Metal | -100% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Precision | 0% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
Fabricators | -25% | 13% | 49% | 38% |
Electrical & Electronics | -25% | 13% | 49% | 38% |
Optimism
Net | Up | Same | Down |
-12% | 22% | 44% | 34% |
Optimism, for the second quarter has reported a decline with a net -12% (-13% last quarter) with small and medium companies having impacted this decline (-17% and -4%) and larger companies showing positivity at +11%, a movement from equal negative and positive returns last quarter (0%). Electronics are recording equal positive and negative returns this quarter, a movement from -33% to 0% along with Plant & Machinery, with a slight fall from +7% to 0% this quarter. Manufacturing has moved from negative returns last quarter to positive (-11% to +4%). Metal Products, Precision Engineering and Fabricators remain negative this quarter at -60%, -46% and -40% respectively (-67%, -40% & -8% last quarter).
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
Small | -17% | 21% | 41% | 38% |
Medium | -4% | 21% | 54% | 25% |
Large | 11% | 33% | 45% | 22% |
Sectors |
|
|
|
|
Manufacturing | 4% | 28% | 48% | 24% |
Plant & Machinery | 0% | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Metal | -60% | 0% | 40% | 60% |
Precision Engineering | -46% | 9% | 36% | 55% |
Fabricators | -40% | 7% | 46% | 47% |
Electrical & Electronics | 0% | 25% | 50% | 25% |
Output Volume
Net | Up | Same | Down |
-20% | 24% | 32% | 44% |
Output volume, for the third consecutive quarter has seen a decline, this quarter it has declined to a net -20%. Small and medium companies have impacted this decline (-24% and -16%) with larger companies showing both equal positive and negative returns. All sectors are reporting negative returns; Metal Products (-60%, an improvement from -67%), Fabricators (-40%, a decline from -21%), Electrical & Electronics (-38%, an improvement from -56%), Precision Engineering (-28%, an improvement from -40%), Manufacturing (-23%, a decline from 0%) and Plant & Machinery (-9%, a decline from 0%).
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
Small | -24% | 24% | 28% | 48% |
Medium | -16% | 20% | 44% | 36% |
Large | 0% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
Sectors |
|
|
|
|
Manufacturing | -23% | 23% | 31% | 46% |
Plant & Machinery | -9% | 27% | 37% | 36% |
Metal | -60% | 0% | 40% | 60% |
Precision | -28% | 27% | 18% | 55% |
Fabricators | -40% | 13% | 34% | 53% |
Electrical & Electronics | -38% | 25% | 12% | 63% |
Staffing
Net | Up | Same | Down |
-4% | 25% | 46% | 29% |
Staffing remains the same as last quarter with a decline of -4% overall for all sizes and sectors. Large companies show an increase to +44% after recording both equal positive and negative returns last quarter (0%). Plant & Machinery shows positivity of +27%, an upward trajectory on last quarter (+15%). Electrical & Electronics, Metal Products, Fabricators, Manufacturing and Precision Engineering all show a decline of -63%, -40%, -26%, -12% & -9% respectively. Precision Engineering recorded the highest downward trajectory from +30% to -9% with Metal Products showing an upward trajectory from -67% to -40%.
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
Small | -7% | 22% | 49% | 29% |
Medium | -8% | 24% | 44% | 32% |
Large | 44% | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Sectors |
|
|
|
|
Manufacturing | -12% | 23% | 42% | 35% |
Plant & Machinery | 27% | 27% | 73% | 0% |
Metal | -40% | 0% | 60% | 40% |
Precision | -9% | 36% | 19% | 45% |
Fabricators | -26% | 7% | 60% | 33% |
Electrical & Electronics | -63% | 0% | 37% | 63% |
Overtime
Overtime has seen a slight decline this quarter with smaller companies reporting the largest decrease of -21% (-9% last quarter) followed by Larger companies (0% to -11%). Medium companies show equal and positive returns this quarter reflecting decreases in both UK and Export orders, with UK orders being most impacted.
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
-15% | 13% | 59% | 28% | |
Small | -21% | 12% | 56% | 32% |
Medium | 0% | 17% | 66% | 17% |
Large | -11% | 11% | 67% | 22% |
Investment
Net | Up | Same | Down |
4% | 26% | 52% | 22% |
Capital investment plans remain positive overall at +4%. All sizes of companies show positivity: Large (+11%), Medium (+4%) and small (+4%). Manufacturing indicate the highest level of investment, an improvement of +16%. Metal Products and Plant & Machinery show negative returns at -25% and -20% respectively with Precision Engineering, Fabricators & Electrical & Electronics reporting equal positive and negatives returns on last quarter (0%).
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
Small | 4% | 26% | 52% | 22% |
Medium | 4% | 25% | 54% | 21% |
Large | 11% | 33% | 45% | 22% |
Sectors |
|
|
|
|
Manufacturing | 16% | 32% | 52% | 16% |
Plant & Machinery | -20% | 20% | 40% | 40% |
Metal | -25% | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Precision | 0% | 22% | 56% | 22% |
Fabricators | 0% | 27% | 46% | 27% |
Electrical & Electronics | 0% | 25% | 50% | 25% |
Training Investment
Although members continue to struggle with their skill challenges across the industry and the impact of National Insurance and National Living Wage increases, all sizes of companies are reporting increased plans for training investment albeit with caution, with larger companies strongest with a net +33% reporting increased training plans whilst small and medium sized companies are also showing positivity at +18% and +8% respectively.
Companies | Net | Up | Same | Down |
16% | 30% | 56% | 14% | |
Small | 18% | 30% | 58% | 12% |
Medium | 8% | 28% | 52% | 20% |
Large | 33% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
Capacity Utilisation
Capacity Utilisation for the second consecutive quarter, shows a negative return with a net -1% of companies reporting that capacity utilisation has fallen.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing companies are showing a decline in Output volume (-23%) and staffing (-12%), however, the outlook shows positivity in most other areas. Investment has seen an improvement moving from 0% to +16% as has UK Orders, moving from -25% to +4% along with optimism, moving from -11% to +4%. Manufacturing predominately shows the most positivity overall.
Forecast
Looking at the next 3 months, the majority of forecasts are positive. All sizes of company forecast positivity in all areas (order intake, order exports, prices UK, prices export, output volume and employees). Fabricators forecast positivity in Prices UK (+40%) and Prices Export (+38%) however forecasting a decline in Order Intake (-36%), Employees (-27%), Output Volume (-20%), and Order Exports (-13%). Manufacturing, Plant & Machinery, Electrical & Electronics and Precision Engineering forecast positivity in all areas (order intake, order exports, prices UK, prices export, output volume and employees).
| Net | Up | Same | Down | |
Orders | 16% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
UK Orders | 12% | 33% | 46% | 21% |
Export Orders | 21% | 35% | 51% | 14% |
Output Volume | 24% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
Balance of change %
| Order Intake UK | Orders Export | Prices UK | Prices Export | Output Volume | Employees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small | 10 | 16 | 38 | 37 | 18 | 8 |
| Medium | 17 | 14 | 30 | 33 | 36 | 12 |
| Large | 22 | 67 | 33 | 33 | 44 | 11 |
| Metal Products | 20 | -25 | 20 | 67 | 20 | 20 |
| Precision Engineering | 0 | 0 | 64 | 56 | 9 | 9 |
| Electrical & Electronics | 38 | 50 | 25 | 13 | 50 | 13 |
| Fabricators | -36 | -13 | 40 | 38 | -20 | -27 |
| Manufacturing | 19 | 25 | 31 | 42 | 8 | 42 |
| Plant & Machinery | 20 | 22 | 30 | 22 | 9 | 9 |